Google’s AI Dominance Has Prediction Markets Betting Big — But Anthropic Could Flip the Script - Alphabet…

Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL)-owned Google seems to be leading the AI race right now. But people betting on prediction markets think Anthropic could take the lead by the end of the year.

Gemini Leads Claude…For Now

Polymarket, a prediction market built on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL), currently gives Google an 81% chance of having the best AI model by the end of October. A month ago, that chance was just 7.8%.

Anthropic is a distant second, with an 18% chance. OpenAI has less than a 1% chance.

The winner will be the company whose model ranks highest on Arena.ai. This platform tests and ranks large language models and AI agents.

At the time of writing, Google's Gemini is ahead in the rankings, with Claude in second place. The Polymarket bet follows Arena.ai's Text Arena | Overall leaderboard, where Google's Gemini has recently held the top spot.

However, the results could look very different by the end of 2026. People placing bets think Anthropic could pass Google by December 31. They give Anthropic a 49% chance of finishing ahead, compared with 42% for Google.

The Fight to Lead AI

These odds matter because Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai said Google is giving up possible revenue from its Cloud business to focus on AI research.

Alphabet expects to spend between $195 billion and $205 billion on major investments this year. Much of this money will go toward expanding the computer systems and other equipment needed to develop and run AI.

The company will report its third-quarter earnings on October 28, after the stock market closes. Analysts expect earnings of $2.89 per share and total revenue of $116.87 billion.

Meanwhile, Anthropic reported a net loss of $80.7 billion in the first half of 2026. Its revenue grew during this period, but its spending on computing systems also increased.

Stock Price Update: Alphabet Class A shares fell 1.50% in pre-market trading, according to Benzinga Pro. The stock closed at $334.76 on Wednesday, down 1.62% during regular trading.

According to Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings, GOOGL has a stronger long-term price trend but has performed worse over the short and medium term.

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