Anthropic’s Year-End IPO Odds Climb to 86% From 74% Overnight

The market-based chance that Anthropic will complete an initial public offering (IPO), which means selling shares to the public for the first time, before 2027 rose to 86%. It was 74% the night before. This means the estimated chance of the company going public by the end of the year rose by 12 percentage points.

These figures come from a prediction market that tracks one specific event: Anthropic holding an IPO before 2027 begins. The change happened overnight. The estimated chance rose from just under three out of four to more than five out of six.

This is a rise of 12 percentage points, not 12%. Compared with the starting figure of 74%, the new estimate is about 16% higher. Percentage points show the direct difference between two probability figures. A percentage increase shows how large that change is compared with the starting figure.

A market probability shows how likely people in a market think an event is within a set time. It does not prove that a company has announced or planned an IPO. Here, the deadline is the end of 2026. The estimate is about whether Anthropic will hold an IPO before 2027 begins.

The overnight rise means the market now sees a greater chance that the IPO will happen before the same deadline. The deadline has not changed.