Anthropic Co-Founder: Internal Model Shows AI Could Drive US GDP to $44 Trillion

Jack Clark, co-founder of Anthropic, stated that the company's internal economic model predicts that AI could significantly boost the US economic output to $44 trillion by 2030, up from just over $30 trillion currently.

Speaking at the IMF and World Bank annual meeting in Bangkok, he noted that this figure "sounds outrageous," but AI is greatly accelerating scientific discovery. Such outcomes could occur as long as technology continues to advance.

Clark added that if GDP growth is this substantial, economic theory suggests that entirely new industries and inventions need to be created to support such a scale of economic expansion. He also called for international cooperation to establish "extraordinary and serious rules" for this transformative technology.

Background information shows that in a previous economic scenario tool released by Anthropic, under extreme scenarios, US GDP could reach about $44.4 trillion, corresponding to approximately 32% growth, accompanied by a high unemployment rate among knowledge workers and an increase in capital share.

Clark leads the Anthropic Institute, which aims to publicly share internal laboratory hypotheses for external evaluation of the economic impacts of different AI capabilities and adoption paths.

Mechanically, the model assumes that rapid improvements in AI capabilities will permeate the economy, driving productivity and accelerating scientific discovery. Capital and technology providers may benefit first, while traditional knowledge jobs and labor-dependent industries face pressure, alongside a rising demand for regulation and international rule-making.

Additional observations indicate that the increase from about $30 trillion to $44 trillion corresponds to an average annual nominal growth of about 10%, emphasizing that the creation of new industries is a necessary condition, rather than merely efficiency improvements.

Source: Public information