SoftBank Group’s credit risk climbs to a four-year high as AI spending raises funding concerns
Credit default swaps linked to SoftBank have reached their highest level in about four years. This comes as the company borrows heavily to invest in OpenAI and other artificial intelligence projects.
By Diego Almada Lopez
SoftBank Group’s credit risk has reached its highest level in about four years. Investors are becoming worried about how the Japanese business group is paying for its artificial intelligence plans and a possible acquisition on top of those plans.
What the debt markets are signaling
The cost of credit default swaps (CDS) on SoftBank's debt over five years has risen to around 380 to more than 400 basis points. Between June and October 2026, these costs rose by about 24%. At one point, they went above 400 basis points.
Investors now pay about 4% of the amount they want to protect each year to insure SoftBank's debt against default, which means the company might not repay what it owes.
SoftBank has been borrowing large amounts of money to fund its AI plans. Its biggest single investment is OpenAI. SoftBank's total commitment to OpenAI has reached about $64.6 billion. By early October 2026, this investment represented roughly a 13% ownership stake in the company behind ChatGPT.
A record junk bond sale with a hefty price tag
To help pay for the final stages of its OpenAI investment, SoftBank sold a record $11.1 billion in high-yield bonds on September 24, 2026. These bonds pay investors high interest but carry greater risk.
The deal came with high interest rates. SoftBank's dollar bonds with different repayment dates offered yields of 8.625%, 9.25% and 9.75%. The highest rate was described as unusually high by historical standards.
OpenAI is not the only place where SoftBank is investing this money. Its strategy, which relies partly on borrowed funds, also includes $5.4 billion for ABB's robotics business and $3.1 billion for DigitalBridge. The DigitalBridge investment is linked to SoftBank's plans for data centers, which house computer systems and equipment.
Rating agencies are watching closely
On September 11, 2026, Fitch gave SoftBank a BB+ credit rating for the first time and assigned a stable outlook. Fitch also pointed to risks linked to SoftBank's investment in OpenAI. A BB+ rating is one level below investment grade, which generally means a company is considered less likely to struggle to repay its debt.
S&P, meanwhile, has kept a negative outlook on SoftBank. This means the agency sees a risk that the company's credit rating could fall.
SoftBank's share price has fallen 38% since reaching its highest point in June 2026. Even so, the company continues to spend large amounts on robotics, data centers and other AI-related projects.
The background: concentration risk
A large part of SoftBank's investment portfolio depends on two companies in particular: chip designer Arm Holdings and OpenAI. A possible acquisition has added to investor concerns because it could require SoftBank to raise even more money while it already faces a busy schedule of funding needs.
What this means
SoftBank has committed about $64.6 billion to one private company, OpenAI. Part of this investment is funded with debt that carries interest rates as high as 9.75%. Fitch currently gives SoftBank a stable outlook, but S&P's negative outlook means a downgrade remains a real possibility.