Anthropic S-1: Why the $80.7B Loss Is Mostly Non-Cash

Anthropic lost $80.7 billion in the first half of 2026, while bringing in $16.3 billion in revenue, according to Investing.com, which reported on an updated draft of an S-1 registration document reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. However, about $72 billion of that loss came from changes in the reported value of convertible notes and other financing instruments. These changes did not mean Anthropic spent that much cash running its business. For people considering buying shares in an Anthropic IPO, business customers checking the company's risks, or traders betting on its listing date on Polymarket, the headline loss is not the most useful number. The company's commitments to buy computing power, its dependence on a small number of customers, and the differences between audited and adjusted figures tell investors much more about the business they may be buying into.

The draft has not yet been published on the SEC's EDGAR system, so its figures could still change before Anthropic releases it publicly.

Anthropic's $80.7 Billion Loss Mostly Comes From Revaluing Its Own Financing

Anthropic's reported loss is so large because financial instruments such as convertible notes are recorded at their fair value. Convertible notes are a type of loan that can be converted into company shares. When a company's value rises quickly, the shares that note holders could receive become more valuable. The increase in value can be recorded as a loss in the company's accounts, even though the company has not paid out that amount in cash. According to Orrick, Anthropic raised $65 billion in a Series H funding round in May 2026, giving it a value of $965 billion after the investment. This rapid rise helps explain why the value of its financing instruments increased. A similar thing happened in 2025. According to Quartz, which cited an earlier confidential prospectus, about $34 billion of Anthropic's roughly $42 billion net loss that year came from a similar accounting charge.

Memeburn calculated that about 89% of Anthropic's loss in the first half of 2026 came from this change in the value of its financing instruments, compared with about 81% in 2025. This means the $80.7 billion headline loss says more about Anthropic's rising value than about how much it spends running its business. The remaining loss deserves closer attention. After removing the accounting charge, Anthropic still lost about $8.7 billion in just six months. That is already more than the roughly $8 billion remaining loss for all of 2025, even though revenue in the first half of 2026 was about 3.5 times the $4.6 billion Anthropic earned during the whole of last year.

Anthropic's Revenue Grew About 15 Times While Compute Spending Grew About Four Times

Anthropic's revenue rose from $1.1 billion in the first half of 2025 to $16.3 billion in the first half of 2026. Over the same periods, spending on computing power and infrastructure rose from $2.3 billion to about $9 billion, according to ZeroHedge, which compared the updated draft with the version leaked in September.

These figures, calculated by Memeburn, show that Anthropic has gone from spending about $2 on computing power for every $1 it earns to spending about 55 cents for every $1 of revenue. This change is a more useful sign of progress than the size of its reported loss. The third quarter appears even stronger based on figures Anthropic shared itself. At an investor day in San Francisco, the company said its revenue reached $16.8 billion in the third quarter, about 45% more than in the second quarter, according to CTech. This would mean that revenue in a single quarter was greater than revenue in the entire first half of the year. Quartz, citing Bloomberg, also reported that Anthropic claimed an adjusted operating margin above 11%, a compute margin above 40%, and positive free cash flow for the quarter. Based on Memeburn's calculation, an 11% margin on $16.8 billion in revenue would mean adjusted operating profit of at least $1.8 billion. Anthropic has not explained how it defines its adjusted figures. The third-quarter results are also missing from the draft S-1, which covers results through June. These figures remain unaudited until they are included in a filing.

If the third quarter's $16.8 billion in revenue continued at the same rate for four quarters, it would equal about $67 billion a year. That is close to the revenue rate Memeburn examined when Anthropic's revenue run rate reached $65 billion at the end of July. This suggests that the company's earlier reported revenue rate is now showing up in its recognised revenue figures.

Anthropic's Compute Commitments Total $450 Billion, $498 Billion or More Than $600 Billion

Anthropic's draft lists about $450 billion in cloud computing agreements that it cannot cancel. These agreements run for seven to ten years. However, the named contracts add up to more than that amount, and the available information does not explain why the totals differ.

ZeroHedge reports that the updated draft puts Anthropic's total contracted computing commitments above $600 billion, up from $518 billion in September. Another $150 billion in agreements is under discussion, which could raise the total to $750 billion. The safest way to read these figures is that Anthropic has a minimum of about $450 billion in commitments it cannot cancel, while its total contracted computing arrangements are worth more than $600 billion. If the $450 billion minimum were spread evenly over seven to ten years, it would work out to about $45 billion to $64 billion a year, based on Memeburn's calculations. By comparison, Anthropic's computing spending in the first half of 2026 would equal about $18 billion a year if it continued at the same rate. Contracts like these are rarely spread evenly over time. Even so, this rough comparison suggests that Anthropic's yearly computing bill could need to grow by about 2.5 to 3.6 times its first-half rate. This makes the reported growth in third-quarter revenue an important part of the case for investing in the IPO.

The draft also says Amazon, Google and Microsoft increasingly see Anthropic as a competitor and have not provided all the computing capacity it wants. This has pushed Anthropic toward outside providers described as having a “limited operating history,” meaning they have not been operating for very long. This fits the pattern described in Memeburn's report on Anthropic renting AI computing power from both Meta and SpaceX.

Anthropic's Customer Concentration and Risk Factors

Anthropic's two largest customers accounted for about 20% of its revenue in the first half of 2026. Memeburn calculated that this was roughly $3.26 billion, down from nearly 25% of 2025 revenue in the September draft. Anthropic has not named either customer. According to Stocktwits, nearly a third of the draft covers possible risks. These include AI models that show behaviour aimed at protecting themselves or give blackmail-like responses to avoid being shut down. Other risks include a catastrophic event that causes damage greater than the company's insurance coverage and growing political opposition to building data centres, with opponents working together more closely. The draft also shows that Dario Amodei and Daniela Amodei each received a base salary of $655,000 in 2025. Their total pay was about $18 million and $16.5 million, respectively. They have also pledged to give 80% of their personal equity to charity and 5% of the company's shares to a public benefit fund. Memeburn previously examined the company's control structure in its report on who holds the off switch at Anthropic.

Which Anthropic Figures Are Audited, Drafted or Only Claimed

What Polymarket Is Pricing for the Anthropic IPO Date

On October 21, Polymarket's “Anthropic IPO by…?” market put the chance of a listing by October 31 at under 1%, by November 30 at 62%, and by December 31 at 78%. Trading volume was about $5.1 million, according to Polymarket. These odds had fallen sharply since September 8. On that date, the same market put the chance of a listing by October at 64% and by the end of the year at 91%, according to Proactive.

Quartz reports that Anthropic could begin its investor roadshow as early as the week of November 9. Shares might start trading before Thanksgiving, and some investors have suggested a company valuation of $1.8 trillion to $2 trillion. However, nothing is final. A company that files its registration statement confidentially must make the document public at least 15 days before its roadshow. Memeburn calculated that if Anthropic's roadshow began on November 9, its S-1 would need to be public by about October 25. This makes the EDGAR filing system the first place traders can look for a firm sign that the IPO is moving forward. At a $2 trillion valuation, Anthropic would be valued at about 30 times its third-quarter revenue multiplied by four, or about 61 times its first-half revenue multiplied by two. Memeburn examined this difference in its article asking whether Anthropic is worth $2 trillion.

FAQs

Did Anthropic really lose $80.7 billion in the first half of 2026?

Yes. According to the draft S-1, Anthropic reported a net loss of $80.7 billion. But about $72 billion came from a non-cash accounting charge caused by changes in the value of convertible notes and other financing instruments. After removing that charge, the loss was roughly $8.7 billion.

How much revenue does Anthropic make?

Anthropic recorded $16.3 billion in revenue in the first half of 2026. It also told investors that it made $16.8 billion in the third quarter alone, but that figure has not been audited.

When is the Anthropic IPO?

No date has been set. On October 21, Polymarket put the chance of a listing by November 30 at 62% and by the end of the year at 78%.

How much has Anthropic committed to spend on compute?

The draft lists about $450 billion in cloud agreements that Anthropic cannot cancel, spread over seven to ten years. Its total contracted computing commitments are reported to be worth more than $600 billion.