Anthropic Could Be Worth More Than Bitcoin by Year-End, Polymarket Traders Say
Just five years after it was founded, Anthropic could become more valuable than all the Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) in circulation. Traders on Polymarket give the AI company a 77% chance of becoming more valuable than Bitcoin before the end of the year.
Anthropic filed the paperwork for its initial public offering (IPO) on Monday. The company is expected to start trading on the Nasdaq in November under the ticker ANT. Investors have reportedly discussed valuing the company at between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion, but Anthropic has not yet announced the price of its shares.
Bitcoin's total market value was about $1.61 trillion on Monday, according to CoinGecko.
If Anthropic is valued at $1.75 trillion, it would already be worth about $140 billion more than Bitcoin. Even if Anthropic is valued at $1.5 trillion, Bitcoin could fall about 7%, to around $74,600, and Anthropic would become more valuable.
Why Anthropic Could Be Worth So Much
Anthropic reported $4.6 billion in revenue for all of 2025, according to its IPO paperwork. By the third quarter of 2026, it was earning $16.8 billion in just three months. That is almost four times the company's total sales for the whole of the previous year.
Revenue in that one quarter was also higher than the $16.3 billion Anthropic earned in the first six months of 2026. That six-month total was already 14 times higher than the amount earned in the same period a year earlier.
At the rate it was earning money in the third quarter, the company behind Claude was bringing in the equivalent of more than $67 billion a year.
Reuters previously reported that Anthropic expects its annual revenue to reach between $190 billion and $200 billion by 2028. This helps explain why investors have considered such high valuations for the company.
However, Reuters reported that some investors have lowered their expectations for Anthropic's IPO valuation to around $1.5 trillion because its quarterly revenue growth has slowed.
Technology investor Paul Kedrosky recently warned Benzinga that cheaper, smaller AI models could threaten premium providers like Anthropic. Many people and businesses may not need expensive, advanced models for everyday tasks.
What Polymarket Traders Are Betting On
The Polymarket betting market has seen about $209,000 in trading volume.
Under the market's rules, Anthropic only needs to become more valuable than Bitcoin once before December 31 for the bet to count.
An official IPO valuation could settle the bet before Anthropic shares begin trading. A qualifying valuation from a private funding round would also count.
Is AI Stealing Crypto's Spotlight?
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, argued in a June memo that AI stocks, robotics companies and SpaceX were attracting investors who might otherwise invest in cryptocurrencies.
"With AI sucking all the oxygen out of the room," he wrote, crypto was becoming an investment that went against the crowd rather than one bought because prices were already rising.
In an October 14 memo, Hougan argued that an AI market crash could first push Bitcoin down. Later, government action and an increase in the money supply could help Bitcoin recover.
Traders on Polymarket give the AI bubble a 10% chance of bursting by December 31. They put the chance at 23% by June 2027. This market has seen more than $3.1 million in trading volume.
"Money supply surges and bitcoin rallies hard," Hougan wrote, describing a possible outcome in which Bitcoin eventually benefits from an AI crash.
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