Anthropic IPO: SpaceX stands to make out big from AI lab's compute spending

One company that could benefit greatly from Anthropic's (ANTH.PVT) growth in the coming years is SpaceX (SPCX).

In its IPO prospectus, filed on Monday, Anthropic explained how much it might spend with SpaceX in the coming years. The company has signed several agreements with SpaceXAI to use NVIDIA (NVDA) graphics processing units (GPUs) for computing work.

Anthropic said, "Under the SpaceXAI Arrangements, we agreed to spend an aggregate of up to $120.5 billion over terms extending into 2029, consisting of approximately $3.1 billion in the aggregate per month once all capacity has been delivered, which we expect in December 2026, with different fees during capacity ramping periods." In other words, the total spending could reach $120.5 billion through 2029, with monthly payments of about $3.1 billion once all the computing capacity is available. Anthropic expects that to happen in December 2026, and payments will vary while capacity is being added.

It was already known that SpaceX and Anthropic had agreed to a computing deal worth more than $1 billion per month. However, the deal's length and possible total cost had not been disclosed. The companies also revealed that either side must give 90 days' notice to cancel the deal.

For SpaceX, the agreement is another sign that its business of providing computing power through AI data centers could bring in money for years to come. SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen discussed the growth of the company's SI business ventures during its Q3 earnings call.

"There are many customers asking for compute, and we're actively building the supply to meet both internal and external demand. We expect to have additional new customers in future deals and will continuously evaluate the highest-margin usage for our compute assets across both new and existing cloud service agreements, including serving inference for our own SI products. What we're seeing in the market is extraordinary," Johnsen said.

Johnsen added that, at current prices, new computing installations earn back their costs in less than a year. He said prices were "currently tracking slightly above the high end of the 30 to $50 per watt range." Johnsen had earlier said he expected SpaceX to reach $100 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) by the end of the year.

CEO Elon Musk has set an even higher target. He said he expects SpaceX's ARR to reach between $500 billion and $1 trillion by the end of 2027. SpaceX is also spending heavily. The company confirmed a new $40 billion deal for NVIDIA chips, with the financing provided through a lease from Apollo Global. (Disclosure: Yahoo is a portfolio company of funds managed by affiliates of Apollo Global Management.)

Musk also believes SpaceX has a major advantage over smaller companies that provide computing services to AI businesses, often called "neocloud" providers. SpaceX has a credit rating and other sources of income, including Starlink and rocket launches. Musk believes smaller AI data center companies will find it very difficult to borrow money.

"That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation," Musk wrote on X. "Some will make it through, but not many."

Pras Subramanian is Yahoo Finance's Lead Transportation Reporter. You can follow him on X and on Instagram.

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