2 min read | Published on 16 Oct 2026, 12:17 AM |Updated on 16 Oct 2026, 02:35 AM

Some investors are dialing back valuation expectations for Anthropic amid disappointing results and a broader market selloff, sources said. This shift contrasts with the company's earlier disclosure of needing $8.3B in monthly revenue to hit a $100B annualized run rate by December.

Anthropic financial disclosures

Anthropic disclosed key financial metrics at its investor day ahead of a planned IPO targeting a valuation exceeding $2T. The company reported Q3 revenue of $16.8B, up from $11.6B in Q2 and $4.7B in Q1. This translates to an annualized revenue figure of $67.2B based on average quarterly revenue.

Despite strong top-line growth, the rate of expansion decelerated significantly. Revenue growth slowed to 45% in Q3 from approximately 147% in Q2. While growing revenue by 45% at this scale remains extraordinary, the slowdown occurs as investor expectations remain extremely high.

Metric	Q1	Q2	Q3
Revenue	$4.7B	$11.6B	$16.8B
Growth Rate	N/A	~147%	45%

The company also reported positive free cash flow, an adjusted gross margin of 85%, and an adjusted operating margin exceeding 11%.

Market reaction and sector trends

The broader market context reflects shifting sentiment toward AI stocks. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE: TSM) saw its stock fall despite reporting record earnings. TSM reported Q3 earnings of $4.60 against a consensus of $4.46, and revenues of $46.72B versus a consensus of $45.67B, marking a 41.1% year-over-year rise. For Q4, TSM guided revenue to $52.3B to $54.3B, above the $50.22B consensus.

Analysts note that the disconnect between AI growth and stock prices is widening. While demand remains strong, slowing growth among major AI model developers raises questions about returns on massive investments by hyperscalers and infrastructure companies.

Economic data and bond flows

Producer Price Index (PPI) data came in hotter than expected, with headline PPI at 1.3% versus a 0.5% consensus, and core PPI at 0.7% versus a 0.3% consensus. Retail sales also exceeded forecasts, with September headline retail sales at 0.8% versus 0.3% consensus, and ex-auto sales at 0.9% versus 0.3% consensus. Initial jobless claims came in at 199K, slightly below the 200K consensus.

Typically, such robust economic data would drive yields higher. However, yields fell and bonds rose as capital flowed out of AI equities into safer assets. Neocloud provider CoreWeave Inc (CRWV) faced panic selling due to high indebtedness, with yields on its 9.652% debt maturing in 2032 rising to 15%. This volatility dragged down related stocks including Oracle Corp (ORCL), Nebius Group NV (NBIS), and IREN Ltd (IREN).

What the numbers show

The divergence between Anthropic’s absolute revenue scale and its decelerating growth rate creates a specific valuation challenge. With Q3 revenue at $16.8B, the annualized run rate stands at $67.2B. To reach the $100B target, the company must nearly double its monthly revenue pace from $5.6B to $8.3B in the final quarter. This implies that even with positive free cash flow and high margins, the primary driver of future valuation will depend on sustaining this accelerated growth trajectory rather than current profitability metrics.