Prediction: This Is How Much a $5,000 Investment in Anthropic Will Be Worth in 1 Year
Anthropic has recently filed to go public, which means investors may soon be able to buy its shares. The artificial intelligence (AI) company could be worth as much as $2 trillion. That would be more than Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX -0.40%), which was worth about $1.8 trillion when it went public in June.
Anthropic's expected IPO is one of the year's most highly anticipated stock market events and is likely to attract a lot of attention. Here's how much I think a $5,000 investment in this technology stock could be worth in one year.
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Anthropic should not be worth more than SpaceX
When SpaceX went public in June, many investors wanted to buy its shares right away. At one point, the company's market value rose above $2.6 trillion. Since then, its value has fallen sharply and is now about $2 trillion. Its shares are trading at around $150, close to the price at which they started trading on their first day.
SPCX Space Exploration Technologies
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/26/26
Key data points
Anthropic's shares do not seem likely to perform better or deserve a higher value. There is strong competition in AI, with many other chatbots available. This makes it even harder to justify paying such a high price for Anthropic than for SpaceX. SpaceX has major growth opportunities in AI, space travel, and telecommunications through its Starlink business.
Anthropic has been growing quickly. Its revenue reached $16.3 billion in the first six months of the year, compared with $1.2 billion during the same period a year earlier. However, the company is still losing money from its operations. It reported an operating loss of $693 million in the first two quarters. It may also be difficult for Anthropic to keep growing this quickly in a market where many companies are competing in AI.
Anthropic will probably perform much worse than SpaceX
If Anthropic is valued at anything close to $2 trillion, I think its shares would be a poor and risky investment. They would probably perform much worse than SpaceX shares. After one year, I expect a $5,000 investment to be worth $3,000 or less. That would mean a loss of at least 40%.
Investors are becoming more cautious about AI, and I do not think Anthropic's high valuation is justified. The company does not have a strong enough competitive advantage to support such a high price, especially because it is not making an operating profit. Its stock may seem exciting, but an exciting investment is not always a good one.
Even investors who like Anthropic and believe it has a bright future may be better off not rushing to buy shares in its IPO. The stock price will probably fall sharply.