Prediction: This Is How Much a $5,000 Investment in Anthropic Will Be Worth in 1 Year
Anthropic recently filed paperwork to go public, which means investors will soon be able to buy its shares. The artificial intelligence (AI) company could be worth as much as $2 trillion. That would be more than Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX), also known as SpaceX, which was valued at about $1.8 trillion when it went public in June.
Anthropic's IPO is one of the most highly anticipated stock market debuts of the year and is likely to attract a lot of attention. Here's how much I think a $5,000 investment in this technology stock could be worth in one year.
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Anthropic should not be worth more than SpaceX
When SpaceX went public in June, many investors wanted to buy its shares right away. At one point, the company's total market value rose above $2.6 trillion. Since then, its value has fallen significantly and is now around $2 trillion. Its stock price is back near $150, the same price it opened at on its first day of trading.
I don't think Anthropic deserves a higher valuation or is likely to perform better than SpaceX. Many companies are competing in the AI market, and there are lots of other chatbots available. This makes it even harder to justify paying such a high price for Anthropic than for SpaceX. SpaceX has major growth opportunities not only in AI but also in space travel and telecommunications through its Starlink business.
Anthropic has been growing quickly. Its revenue reached $16.3 billion in the first six months of the year, compared with $1.2 billion during the same period a year earlier. However, the company is still losing money from its main business operations. It reported an operating loss of $693 million during the first two quarters. It may also be difficult for Anthropic to keep growing at the same speed because so many companies are competing in the AI market.
Anthropic will probably perform much worse than SpaceX
If Anthropic is valued at anywhere near $2 trillion when it goes public, I think buying its stock would be a bad and risky choice. I expect it to perform much worse than SpaceX. After one year, I think a $5,000 investment could be worth $3,000 or less. That would mean losing at least 40% of the money invested.
Investors are becoming more cautious about AI, and I don't think Anthropic's high valuation is justified. The company does not have a strong enough competitive advantage to support such a high price, especially because it is not profitable. The stock may be exciting, but that does not necessarily make it a good investment.
Even investors who believe in Anthropic and its future may want to avoid rushing to buy shares in its IPO. The stock could fall sharply in price after it begins trading.
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David Jagielski, CPA does not own shares in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool also does not own shares in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Prediction: This Is How Much a $5,000 Investment in Anthropic Will Be Worth in 1 Year was originally published by The Motley Fool.