The All-In Podcast Flags Red Flags in Anthropic’s IPO. What Everyday Investors Should Know
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Microsoft reported a $3.2 billion gain from its investment in Anthropic in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026. This helped raise its adjusted earnings per share, or EPS, to $4.74, above the average analyst estimate of $4.24.
The All-In Podcast warned that Anthropic's planned IPO could be valued at 30 times its annual sales. Such a high price depends on continued growth and can make a stock especially vulnerable if growth slows.
Anthropic's planned stock market debut has attracted strong criticism from some investors. In the October 17, 2026, episode of the All-In Podcast, titled CoreWeave Crash, AI Trade Cracks, Anthropic IPO Red Flags, Bill Gates Doomer, the hosts said Anthropic plans to go public around Thanksgiving. They also said the company's Investor Day figures received mixed reactions. Their discussion offers a useful list of things retirement savers should check before investing in a popular AI stock. It is also relevant to people who own Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT).
Investor Day Numbers Drew Mixed Reviews
The All-In Podcast hosts said the market's estimated chance that Anthropic would go public in 2026 had fallen to 74%, down from 95% in early September. This number reflects what traders expect about when the IPO will happen.
The figures discussed on the show included $16.8 billion in revenue for the third quarter, a net revenue retention rate of 900%, an adjusted gross margin of 85%, and an adjusted operating margin of 11%. One host said, "No word on how the adjustments were calculated." Another said people who attended the event had reportedly signed non-disclosure agreements, which limit what they can share publicly. The host added, "I don't know if you can completely trust what's floating around X here. I think we'll find out in due course."
Chamath Palihapitiya said the company's growth was remarkable: "I found the revenue breathtaking. $16.8 billion in a quarter for a three-year-old company is just ridiculous." He also argued that Anthropic should raise between $200 billion and $250 billion at a lower company valuation so it could secure enough computing power.
What the All-In Podcast's 30 Times Sales Demands From Buyers
One All-In Podcast host described Anthropic's planned IPO as "a very big IPO, 30 times price-to-sales ratio." The price-to-sales ratio compares a company's market value with its annual revenue. At a ratio of 30, investors pay $30 for every $1 the company earns in yearly sales. The higher this ratio, the more the company must keep growing its revenue and improving its profit margins to justify its price. If growth slows, stocks with very high valuations are often hit hardest.
For comparison, Microsoft trades at 11.74 times its sales over the past 12 months and has an operating profit margin of about 46.8%.
How IPO Hype Usually Plays Out
Popular new stock offerings often make only a small number of shares available at first. Strong demand on the first trading day can push the share price well above the original offering price, so people who buy shares on the open market may pay much more. Company insiders usually have to wait before selling their shares. When this waiting period, called a lockup, ends months later, more shares may become available and put pressure on the price. Index funds may also have to buy the stock once it qualifies for an index, meaning retirement accounts that hold those funds may end up owning it automatically.
When Anthropic files its S-1 registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) through its EDGAR system, investors should focus on audited revenue figures, how the company defines its "adjusted" profit margins, its commitments to computing capacity, how much it depends on individual customers, and how it plans to use the money raised. One podcast host noted that if the IPO happens next month, investors will be able to see the actual figures.
Why Microsoft Shareholders Have Skin in This Listing
Microsoft already reports financial results linked to its investment in Anthropic. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, it recorded a $3.20 billion gain on that investment. This helped lift adjusted diluted earnings per share to $4.74, compared with the average analyst estimate of $4.24, according to Microsoft's earnings release filed with the SEC. Microsoft also owns about 27% of rival AI company OpenAI, a stake valued at roughly $135 billion. If Anthropic becomes a public company, its market price could change how investors value this type of investment exposure each day.
Investor sentiment can also spread across the AI industry. As one All-In host said, "Anytime there's negative news on the big labs, everybody in the supply chain gets hit with that." The supply chain includes the companies that provide electricity, cooling systems, and networking equipment for data centers. These businesses are earning money from AI growth, even if they receive less attention. The publication also highlighted seven companies that supply AI infrastructure in a free report. A panelist on CNBC's Fast Money warned on October 14 that "if Anthropic goes public, it goes much less than where it's trading right now." On Bloomberg Businessweek, Mandeep Singh said large cloud-computing companies should "shine," while "the lab side seems to be incrementally slowing down because of open source pressure."
Microsoft's size and broad business give it some protection from these risks. Its AI business reached an annualized revenue rate of more than $37 billion in fiscal Q3. Azure generated more than $100 billion in revenue during fiscal 2026, and Microsoft's capital spending for the full year reached $115.95 billion. Its shares were trading near $530, up 10.29% since the start of the year and 2.66% over the past 12 months.
What to Watch Before the Bell Rings on Anthropic
Microsoft is expected to release its next earnings report this week. If Anthropic's plan to go public around Thanksgiving stays on track, its S-1 filing should follow. Investors should watch to see whether audited financial statements confirm the figures shared at Investor Day. They should also watch whether Microsoft's comments about capital spending and demand for AI services help calm the wider AI investment market. For people investing for retirement, official financial filings are more reliable than headlines about the first day of trading.
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