Crypto traders value Anthropic at $1.9 trillion as investor warns its IPO could mark the top of the AI bubble

Anthropic filed paperwork for an initial public offering (IPO) on Nasdaq on Monday and reported an operating profit for the quarter. At the same time, crypto markets valued the company at nearly $2 trillion.

The company behind Claude, an AI assistant, submitted its registration statement, known as an S-1, to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on October 26. It wants to list its shares under the ticker symbol ANT.

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are leading the IPO. It could become one of the largest stock market offerings in US history. Anthropic has not yet announced the planned share price or how much money it wants to raise, but market expectations point to a possible launch in November.

Crypto traders value Claude's developer at nearly $2 trillion

Crypto trading platform Liquid reported that Anthropic's estimated market value fell by about 2% to $1.88 trillion after the announcement.

Meanwhile, Better Markets gave an estimated pre-IPO share price of $2,967.92. Using its own pricing method, that price would put the company's value at about $1.43 trillion.

These huge valuations have divided investors over what Anthropic's stock market debut could mean for the wider technology industry.

Simon Dedic, founder of Moonrock Capital, said he expects Anthropic's shares to start trading by mid-November. He warned that the IPO could mark the "top of the AI bubble," meaning the point when excitement and investment in AI reach their highest level before falling. Alternatively, he said, it could become one of the biggest wealth-creation events in private-market history.

Dedic argued that an IPO of this size could free up large amounts of money held by early investors and employees. They might then put some of that money into startups and other markets.

His view raises a bigger question: how much of the wealth created during the AI investment boom might eventually move into other types of investments, including crypto.

However, Anthropic has not confirmed when its shares will start trading or how much the company will be worth in the offering. When shareholders can sell their shares will depend on the rules that apply to their existing holdings.

Anthropic's rising profits come with huge infrastructure costs

The company's financial reports provide a firmer basis for judging the valuations being discussed in these markets.

Anthropic earned $16.3 billion in revenue during the first half of 2026, up from about $1.16 billion in the same period a year earlier. This was an increase of about 1,300%.

Social Capital, citing Anthropic's IPO filing, pointed to even faster growth in quarterly revenue. Revenue rose from $376 million in the first quarter of 2025 to $11.6 billion in the second quarter of 2026.

This was an increase of about 31 times over five quarters. During the same period, the company also became much more efficient at managing its operating costs.

In the first quarter of 2025, Anthropic spent about $2.51 on computing and infrastructure for every dollar it earned. By the second quarter of 2026, it was spending about 48 cents for every dollar of revenue.

This improvement helped the company report an operating profit of $974 million in the quarter ending in June. That was a major change from the operating loss of $1.67 billion in the previous three months.

However, Anthropic reported a net loss of $66.3 billion for the quarter. Much of this loss came from changes in the accounting value of its financing arrangements, rather than from its everyday business operations. These changes included $59.6 billion from revaluing convertible notes as Anthropic's estimated value increased.

These accounting changes also helped explain the company's net loss of $80.7 billion for the first half of the year. That figure included $72.4 billion in changes to the estimated value of convertible notes, derivatives and related financial agreements.

Venture capitalist Nic Carter described the financial results as "robust and improving." He argued that the large reported loss hid improvements in how well Anthropic's core business was performing.

Even so, Carter questioned whether a valuation close to $1.5 trillion made sense when compared with revenue. At that valuation, the company would be worth about 22 times its annualized third-quarter revenue, meaning its quarterly revenue would be used to estimate a full year's earnings.

Meanwhile, Melvin, an analyst at Milk Road AI, argued that Anthropic's improving profitability and about $131.7 billion in cash and short-term investments challenge the idea that leading AI developers must keep raising money from outside investors to continue operating.

However, Anthropic's agreements to build and use computing infrastructure create a major financial risk.

The company has agreements with Amazon, Google, Microsoft and other computing providers that could involve hundreds of billions of dollars in spending over several years.

Its agreements with SpaceX alone could cost as much as $120.5 billion through 2029. However, these agreements include options to cancel after the first periods during which cancellation is not allowed.

This financial risk is especially important because about 80% of Anthropic's revenue in the first half of the year came from services where customers pay based on how much they use. Customers can cut this spending quickly, but Anthropic may not be able to reduce its infrastructure commitments as quickly.

Anthropic warned that if demand falls, it might not have enough money to meet the minimum payments required by its agreements. This could cause it to break the terms of commercial contracts and trigger rules requiring it to repay related financing earlier than planned.

The company has increased its available revolving credit to $15 billion. Starting at the end of 2026, it must also maintain at least $5 billion in available cash and other qualifying funds each quarter.

Meanwhile, the IPO could lead to another major market event after the shares first begin trading.

Dedic questioned what thousands of employees and early investors who become wealthy from the IPO might do with their money once they are allowed to sell their shares. He suggested that some of the money could flow into new investments.

Anthropic's IPO prospectus describes an unusual set of rules that gradually allow shareholders to sell their shares. Some shareholders will be allowed to sell limited amounts from the first day of trading, with more shares becoming available later.

Some employees may sell shares immediately, while other investors must wait as long as 180 days. The company's co-founders and certain major shareholders face longer restrictions of up to 365 days, although some of their shares can be released earlier under specific conditions.

These rules could spread share sales over several months instead of allowing large numbers of shares to be sold all at once when a single restriction period ends.

However, the filing does not yet state the final size of the IPO or the total number of shares involved. This means the total dollar value of shares that could enter the public market at each stage is still unknown.