Michael Burry Finds a $537 Billion Hole in Anthropic’s IPO Story - Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Alphabet…
Famous investor Michael Burry says the biggest number in Anthropic PBC's IPO filing is shown as one total figure.
In his latest Substack post, Burry added up about $537 billion in computing commitments across Anthropic's partners. He called this total "the most deserved headline" from the S-1 filing. He argued that much of this amount is hidden in the filing's notes.
The $537 Billion Bill
Burry's breakdown includes:
- $114.5 billion for Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG)
- $110 billion for Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN)
- $44.9 billion for Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT)
- Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) accounts for $161.2 billion in rented racks of tensor processing units (TPUs). Cloud computing companies Lambda and Nscale add about $86 billion.
- Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ: AMD) accounts for more than $20 billion in expected commitments.
Two more deals push the total higher. A Google TPU agreement that is still being finalized could add $125 billion to $150 billion for the years 2028 through 2031. SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) could add up to $120.5 billion.
Including both deals, Burry estimates that the total commitments are more than 20 times Anthropic's sales over the past 12 months.
Anthropic filed its S-1 publicly on Monday. The company plans to list its Class A shares on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker ANT. It has not yet set the number of shares it will sell or the price range. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are leading the group of banks handling the offering.
Growth Slows as Costs Rise
Burry argues that Anthropic's revenue growth is slowing while its commitments keep growing. Revenue growth from one quarter to the next reached 132% and 144% in the first two quarters of 2026. In the third quarter, it fell to about 45%, with revenue close to $16.9 billion.
He said monthly growth slowed to between 3% and 7% in August and September. The amount of revenue earned for each dollar spent on computing also fell, from $2.08 to $1.70. This was the first time that measure had dropped.
Many of the contracts require Anthropic to pay even if it does not use all the computing power it agreed to buy. These are called take-or-pay contracts. If actual use falls short, Anthropic must still cover the difference through an additional payment, known as a true-up.
Burry also pointed to money moving back and forth between Anthropic and its partners. Amazon and Google provided about $41 billion of the $141 billion Anthropic has raised. Much of that money then goes back to those companies when Anthropic buys computing services. The two large cloud providers also charge customers and collect 48% of Anthropic's revenue through their cloud marketplaces.
The Other Side
Not everyone sees the filing as a warning sign. Nicholas Mugalli described about $500 billion in computing capacity committed across all the major chipmakers. He said the expansion has only just begun.
The reported loss may also make Anthropic's financial position look worse than it is. Benzinga's analysis of the negative case noted that most of the $80.7 billion loss came from a non-cash accounting charge related to convertible notes. The operating loss was $693 million. Burry linked much of the accounting charge to notes issued by Amazon. These notes can be converted into shares valued at $108 billion using the Series H funding round's share price.
What Happens Next
Burry expects Anthropic to update its S-1 filing before its investor roadshow. The update would provide more details about the third quarter and the company's October revenue rate. He suggested that the result is already clear, saying, "I think we know what it will show."
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